Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+362 Change across series
43 Official data points
Wyre
Cat Smith
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Wyre.
360 people housed on asylum support in Wyre
Rank 89 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 30.32 per 10,000 puts Wyre in the 90th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £20M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Wyre
£7.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£921Ksubsistence payments/year
£432KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 360 people on asylum support in Wyre (0.34% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Wyre: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 360
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 129
Afghan programme 25
Resettlement cumulative 83
Population context
All pathways total 514
Share of local population 0.43%
Ethnic composition projection
Wyre: WBI 95.7% (2021) → 93.8% (2051). 80% CI: 90–91.6%.
Ethnic composition: Wyre
White British Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Wyre
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Wyre ranges from 54.1% to 79.9% by 2051. That is a 25.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 63.0% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.4% (2051). Christian 63.1% → 11.8%.
Religion: Wyre
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
3.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.13). 98.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Wyre
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.1% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black 24.1% internal, 4.4% international
other 13.8% internal, 3.4% international
white other 12.4% internal, 4.2% international
mixed 14.8% internal, 1.2% international
asian 9.6% internal, 4.1% international
white british 9% internal, 0.2% international
Why Wyre is changing
-1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Wyre on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53%
Mixed 61.8%
White Other 64%
Other 57.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 74.6%
Mixed 57.4%
White Other 59.8%
Other 44%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28%
Mixed 34.7%
White Other 38.4%
Other 40.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
52.1 crimes per 1,000 residents (8th percentile). Up 0.1% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
52.1 Per 1,000 residents
42 Hate crimes
18.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 308 per 10,000 pupils (4th percentile). 5-year growth: +30.2%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
842 Total EHCPs
36.1% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £462 per capita (4th percentile).
£462 Gross spend per capita
388 Residential per 10k 65+
19.3 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
524 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 28.4/100.
30.3 Asylum rate /10k
-0.10pp WB annual change
52.1 Crime /1,000
+30.2% SEND 5yr growth
£462 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
360 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
30.32 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North West by supported asylum.