Trend
-121 Latest quarter change
+270 Change across series
22 Official data points
York
Rachael Maskell
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping York.
341 people housed on asylum support in York
Rank 94 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 16.29 per 10,000 puts York in the 72nd percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 330 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £19M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs York
£6.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£872Ksubsistence payments/year
£409KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 341 people on asylum support in York (0.32% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
York: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 0
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 11
Contingency accommodation 330
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 438
Afghan programme 156
Resettlement cumulative 111
Population context
All pathways total 935
Share of local population 0.45%
Ethnic composition projection
York: WBI 87.3% (2021) → 78.0% (2051). 80% CI: 71.6–76.5%.
Ethnic composition: York
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: York
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in York ranges from 61.0% to 74.8% by 2051. That is a 13.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.4% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 1.1% (2051). Christian 47.1% → 9.3%.
Religion: York
Christian No religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
10.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.31). 94.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: York
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 13% moved within UK, 1.3% arrived from abroad
asian 18.7% internal, 12.9% international
black 20.8% internal, 8.5% international
mixed 23.2% internal, 2.4% international
other 16.8% internal, 8.2% international
white other 16.7% internal, 4.6% international
white british 12.3% internal, 0.4% international
Why York is changing
-2.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View York on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58%
Mixed 60.1%
White Other 72.3%
Other 55.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.8%
Mixed 43.8%
White Other 44%
Other 31.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 37.7%
Mixed 42.3%
White Other 53.7%
Other 48.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 24,830 pupils. 81.9% White British. Schools are 5.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 81.9%
White Other 6.5%
Asian 4.4%
Mixed 4.2%
Black 1.8%
Other 1.2%
What this means
Schools are 5pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
18.1% Minority pupils now
29.2% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
81.8% Primary WBI
81.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.72pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 86.3% vs school 81.9% (-4.4pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
341 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.29 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
330 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in Yorkshire and The Humber by supported asylum.